Following some news stories about the current EUHR when I stumbled upon this one:
I wasn’t going to post again until later, but this was really bugging me. We’ve all seen the constant stream of criticism of EU foreign minister. Today I see her doing everything she can to not offend the Iranians here: Iranians gush over Ashton’s ‘modest’ appearance
I can’t help but think she’s pulling out all the stops to make this her defining moment in politics. What she doesn’t realize, is that these negotiations have almost no chance of success. The Iranians have zero intention of backing down from their threatening posture against Israel. The Israelis also have no intention of allowing themselves to wait for slaughter by an irrational fanatic regime bent on their annihilation.
If I can, I’d like to make some guesses about the next month, and the result of these talks, just guesses since I am no prophet. My first guess is that these talks will be an utter failure. Obama and others already guess at this, so they are letting Lady Ashton take center stage as the leader of these doomed negotiations. When the talks breakdown, or even possibly a little before they start- Iran will take measures to secure its nuclear assets from an inevitable Israeli and possible multi-national airstrike. The Israelis will detect these moves through their surveillance or intelligence penetration of Iran’s regime – and will determine they must strike immediately. The strike will have huge repercussions across the world and will be viewed as a disaster.
Every disaster needs a scapegoat right? Israel will be the scapegoat in one sense, but I believe that when this crisis comes to a head the EU/P5+1 has it’s own scapegoat already prepared and her name is Cathy Ashton.
I could be wrong – the talks could go great or badly and Ashton survives the political fallout. I don’t really think so- I think this is her big bet where she’s putting all her chips on the table. I don’t think she realizes that this is the worst possible time to make the big bet – and her office will become vacant as a result.